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I know. It抯 shocking. But, I keep hearing it. The guy can still lose this thing, even though when you look at the electoral map, he is kicking the shit out of Old School. Even though he is gaining in Bush red states like Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada. Even though he has an insurmountable lead in the McCain must win state of Pennsylvania. He can still lose.

Here are reasons you should be scared.

THE BRADLEY EFFECT

Oh my God. So fucking scary.

The Bradley Effect is named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley. It is the reason Bradley lost two elections. Apparently, people will tell pollsters they are undecided or voting for the black guy, but when they get into the voting booth they vote for the white guy. It抯 a disturbing thing to think about. And you should be very, very afraid, according to the general election pollster for the guy who defeated Tom Bradley.

The other reason I reject the Bradley Effect in 2008 is because there was not a Bradley Effect in the 1982 California Governor’s race, either. Even though Tom Bradley had been slightly ahead in the polls in 1982, due to sampling error, it was statistically too close to call.

Scary stuff. There’s always a dark, shadowy situation when dealing with black people.

The only thing we know for sure is the election was too close to call, and some of the Election Day projections were right and others (notably Mervin Fields’ projections) were wrong and, unfortunately, most of this explanation because of selective memory has not been carried forward to this day.

The Field Poll inaugurated the speculation that led to the baseless Bradley Effect theory when, after the 1982 election, Field said “race was a factor in the Bradley loss” (AP 11-4-82). Mervin Field cited no data, but only speculated that white conservative voters of both parties were more undecided and that he may have over-represented minority voters in his polling. Thus, the Bradley Effect was born amidst some major polling errors and a confusing array of mixed predictions, hardly a firm foundation to construct a theory.

So, definitely watch out for that. Honestly, I don抰 know how Obama overcomes something as mythical as Bigfoot.

OCTO…er..NOVEMBER SURPRISE

Oh noes! It will just take one crazy surprise and this fucker is over. For instance, terrorists could blow something up, like a truck or a shovel. Then everybody will switch over to the guy who has seemed erratic and unstable during EVERY SINGLE CRISIS since the election race began. Look, when terrorists strike, people always say to themselves, 揑 want a very old guy who is nuts and angry, with a unknowledgeable lady idiot backing him up, to handle this shit.It抯 just how things go. So, when terrorists blow up a hat, you can turn out the lights for Obama.

VOTER FRAUD

So many close states ripe for Republican thievery. They抮e going to steal it in every one! Obama has to be up by at least 6 points to win!

Look, it抯 really, really easy to steal an election by stealing it in 14 or so states. That抯 why the Republicans focused their stealing energy on one state in 2000 (Florida) and one state in 2004 (Ohio). Thievery works best when you do it on a massive and blatant scale.

CLOSE, CLOSE RACES

This is terrifying! We抳e been here before, haven抰 we Obama is barely ahead in sooo many states.

- Virginia: Obama up 51 percent to 47 percent.
- Colorado: Obama up 50 percent to 46 percent.
- Missouri: McCain up 48 percent to 47 percent.
- Ohio: Obama up 49 percent to 45 percent.
- North Carolina: McCain up 49 percent to 48 percent.
- Florida: Obama up 51 percent to 47 percent.
- New Hampshire: Obama up 50 percent to 46 percent.

I almost just shit myself writing that. Obviously if it抯 close, McCain will win every one of those states which is what he has to do to win. And Bush won most of those states, so even though Obama is surging in them, McCain will win then. Obama is doomed!

COMPLACENCY

AHHHHHHHH! Why aren抰 people going to fucking vote! After 8 years of the most dreadful president in the history of the US, facing an economic disaster, a housing crisis, a costly failure of a war, the first black Democratic nominee and a massive increase in Democratic registrations and people are going to be complacent because they think Obama has it in the bag. What the fuck

There are three states in which early voting has already exceeded its totals from 2004. These are Georgia, where early voting is already at 180 percent of its 2004 total, Louisiana (169 percent), and North Carolina (129 percent).

The African-American population share is the key determinant of early voting behavior. In states where there are a lot of black voters, early voting is way, way up. In states with fewer African-Americans, the rates of early voting are relatively normal.

This works at the county level too. In Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland), which about 30 percent black, twice as many people have already voted early as in all of 2004. In Franklin County (Columbus), which is about 18 percent black and also has tons of students, early voting is already about 3x its 2004 total.

Fucking complacency. Obama is fucked.

Oh, and there are more reasons. Obama will probably say something stupid these last four days. Like, 揥here the white women atOr Jesus will return, point at McCain and say, 揘ow that guy is the shit!Or, Biden could take a kitten up on stage and rips its head off with his bare hands, drink the blood and then fornicate with the torso. Or Sarah Palin coulduhuh厀ait. Maybe this is over.

Maybe this late in the race everyone should step back and take a look at the big picture. A black man, with a Muslim sounding name, who has only been in the Senate for two years, who is a Democrat, who believes in many liberal policies, who was opposed to the Iraq War from the beginning and who did cocaine in his younger years, is ahead in all the polls. That doesn抰 happen to a guy who is going to lose. It shows the quality he brings.

Two years ago, if you had told me a guy with all that baggage would be ahead at time I would have laughed at you. People have chosen. A massive victory will occur on Tuesday. Massive.

FearTheReaper is a writer, actor and stand up comedian. Check back each Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday for more from FearTheReaper and read his blog, Stop All Monsters. Come see him at the San Jose Improv this Saturday and Sunday.